Wednesday, August 31, 2005

Pro Bubble vs No Bubble Crowd

Knowing what happened during the stock market boom era, would you believe whatever Jack Grubman/Mary Meeker/Henry Blodget and others will recommend, knowing what you know today?

Here, the housing bubble team will add the names of folks who are going on record about the existence (or lack of) a bubble. Over time, the masses will know who the liars are:

Folks claiming that a bubble exists:
  1. Robert Shiller
  2. Doug Kass
  3. Dean Baker
  4. Paul Krugman
  5. Paul Volcker, Former Chairman, Federal Reserve
  6. Jon Puplava
  7. Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley

Folks claiming that no bubble exists: (It must be noted, that many of these individuals will speak either way. Occasionally they may say that there is a bubble in some markets, while claiming elsewhere that this is the new normal. This dual stand makes it convenient for them to jump on the "I told you so!" bandwagon, no matter which way the wind blows.)
  1. Alan Greenspan, Chairman, Federal Reserve
  2. David Lareah, Economist, National Association of Realtors
  3. David Jones, Texas A& M University
  4. Ben Bernanke, Chariman, President's Council of Economic Advisors


At 6:30 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm glad that you wrote this post. It is important that we keep track of those people who claim either side of the bubble debate so we can know who to trust in the future. After the stock bubble crashed, many people lost credibility and suddenly disappeared. Looking forward to see who vanishes this time. I posted something from our blog that is similar in content: Yes Housing Prices Can and Do Decline.

I also wanted to see if you'd be interested in a link exchange between blogs. Let me know through our website's email from Real Estate Investing Community.

At 3:26 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I wonder why Greenspan and Bernanke are in the non-bubble camp? I wouldn't be talking about bubbles if I were in charge of monetary policy and this happened on my watch...

At 2:06 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Maybe the problem is that you don't adequately define the term "bubble" and reference statements made by these individuals to support your opinion that their views fall in one camp or the other. You must define your terms and you won't have to resort to ad hominem attacks and your inherent logical fallacies. Unfortunately it comes off as a one sided flame war.

At 2:18 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

When and where did you get this information? Alan Greenspan has been saying there is a bubble and has been warning the public about it for months.

At 2:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Keep up the good work!

At 12:53 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Housing crash....not in NYC there isn't

One of the biggest price surges in Manhattan took place on the Upper West Side, where four-bedroom and larger apartments cost an average of $5.7 million, or a 48 percent increase over the fourth quarter of 2005.

The average price of an apartment with three or more bedrooms on the Upper East Side was about $3.8 million, up 22 percent.

The average price per square foot in Manhattan rose to a new high of $1,050 in the fourth quarter, up 7 percent from $979 a year earlier.

The median sales price increased 5.1% to $799,000 over the prior year
quarter median of $760,000.

At 8:05 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The bubble is huge, yes. But keep in mind that these bubbles are regional. Look at how well places like Austin, Texas, are doing. We have never had a national housing collapse except during the Great Depression. Regions like San Diego that have been hit and will fall further will be much higher in the next 10-15 years. A bubble yes, but opportunity awaits.

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At 5:02 AM, Anonymous Laguna Beach Real Estate said...

I have read a lot about the stock market boom era. I would say we should not hear from others instead we should take decisions backed by our own knowledge and analysis.

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