Saturday, April 30, 2005

The road to a bubble?

Why the bubble willl burst?

1) Higher Interest Rates : As Interest rates rise, home owners who are already deep in debt are going to find it even more difficult to pay higher monthly payments. Most sectors of the economy are not growing, leading to falling wages and increasing costs of education, healthcare and rising prices. Squeezed between falling wages and rising interest rates, may owners will walk away from their homes. In the absence of higher incomes, home prices will have to fall, inorder to accomodate the rise in interest rates.

2) Record levels of debt : The nation and the individuals carry a mountain of debt, in the form of deficits and low savings rates. Hence most of the home purchases are being made due to easy credit. When the interest rates increase, the foreclosures are bound to increase and this is going to be a quick downward spiral.

3) Low savings rate : Home buyers are mortgaged to the hilt. The US Savings rate is currently at 0.2% and is at the lowest in many decades. A significant portion of these homes have been purchased on credit. Further, many buyers have sought loans even to pay the down payment. If the interest rates were to rise, it would be difficult for many home owners to keep up with the rise in payments.

4) Poor economy : Enough said. Between the rising trade deficit, the budget deficit and the loss of jobs, we have seen the number of jobless rise over the past five years. Further any decrease in number of unemployment benefit claims is not due to people finding work, but due to their giving up hope and stop looking for work altogether.

5) Rental rates vs House prices : If there were really a shortage of housing, then we should be seeing a shortage of rental properties. Rental rates should be increasing and the rental vacancies must go down. However, the rental vacancy rate is currently at 10%, the highest since the Census Bureau started tracking the data in the 50's.

6) Record unemployment : While statistics have you believe that the number of workers seeking unemployment benefits is dropping, that is happening due to workers losing their eligiblity to draw down further unemployment benefits. With several millions of jobs transferred overseas and several hundreds of thousands of jobs permanently lost after the dot com bust, it is almost impossible for the employment situation to be what it was, a few years ago.

7) Subprime lending : Banks and financial institutions are more than happy to dole out loans, without regard to the repayment capabilities or credit status of the borrower. Zero down loans, 125% loans, Interest only loans, ARMs and other financing schemes are now at their historical highs and many borrowers are going to be squeezed as the interest rates rise and the payment comes due. This will ultimately affect not only the borrowers and their communities, but the ripple effects will be felt throughout the society.

8) Boomers entering retirement : The baby boomer generation has begun retiring. With outsourcing, weak job prospects and insufficient income from social security, they will be forced to cash in, what constitutes the only asset for most - their house. While boomers who cash in early on may be able to get a good price, other sellers may end up listing their houses during periods of surplus inventory, thereby further dragging down house prices tremendously.

9) Changes to bankcruptcy laws : The recent changes in bankruptcy laws will make it very difficult for those with credit problems to retain their homes. As a result, bank reposessions will rise and these foreclosures will flood the markets, thereby lowering prices drastically.


1) The bubble is regional : False. Nationwide, prices have risen 52% since 1990. While some of the metros such as Seattle or Boston may have risen more than certain other inland cities, almost all areas have seen a price increase. If the rise in prices is nation wide, there is no reason to believe that any deflation will be limited to a small region. Several analysts and central bankers who say that any housing bubble is regional fail to remember that during the tech bubble, the stocks of almost every company rose in price. Subsequently after the crash, the entire economy went into a recession. Hence it would be unwise to hope that only Los Angeles, Boston, Seattle, San Francisco etc.. would bear the brunt of a crash and the rest of the market will be unscathed.

2) Limited land : Most people believe that a CEO and his board could print stock certificates out of thin air and sell them to the gullible public and that unlike stock, the supply of land is limited. While the supply of land is limited, there is ample land in most areas (except in the downtown areas), for most people. Unless you are in London or Los Angeles or Manhattan or similar extremely crowded areas, land is almost always available in the suburbs or within a few miles of the city. There is no reason, why houses in areas very far from the city, should command astronomical prices. Besides land is scarce in Japan too, that has not prevented real estate prices from sliding downwards further, every year for the last 15 years.

3) The amount of land is shrinking due to environmental regulations : A large portion of the rise in house prices took place between 2000 and 2005, during the term of an administration that would rather be caught dead, than enforce environmental laws.

4) Immigrants : Despite popular belief, facts do not support the myth that recent immigrants are responsible for the housing boom. Most immigrants work for years and try to get their immigration details sorted out, before they plan to buy a house (if they can afford to buy one, that is...)

5) For the housing market to collapse, there should be a large external stimulus or shock : False. The collapse can be kicked off by fairly small events. All it takes, is one seller in a single block to sell his/her home below what is widely propagated as the market value and the domino effect is set into motion.

6) Housing market will collapse, only if the interest rates rise and rise suddenly : During the last housing bust in Los Angeles, CA, the interest rates were on a downward trend. The real estate crash in Japan occured, when the interest rates were near bottom.

7) Home prices are based on supply and demand : True and False. While home prices are based on supply and demand, the demand part is overhyped. The various realtors, mortgage bankers etc. woulld like you to believe that the reason a shortage of supply is causing rise in prices. However, if you look at the balance sheets of most home builders, you will note an increase in unsold inventories. Check out the balance sheets of your favorite home builder from 2002 though the latest statement and you will be suprised to see an increase of almost 110% in some cases!

8) Everyone needs a roof over their head : True and False. Everyone needs a roof over head, but the roof does not have to be their own. A few people choose to own the house, while others may choose to rent. However, over the last year, a record number of people are buying homes, with the intention to flip. These speculators are not buying, a home because they need a place to stay. Rather they are looking for the next sucker to unload to.

Why the bubble may not burst

1) Overzealous administration : The administration may be willing to pour in more money to keep the bubble going, as this may potentially be the only legacy of this administration and could turn out to be an election issue for Jeb Bush.

2) Greenspan : With Alan Greenspan in his last term, he would like to leave on a high note, rather than have two-thirds of the population think that he was responsible for the utter collapse in their standard of living. Further as soothsayer of the economy, it is in his interest to talk up things than to reaffirm the underlying grim picture.

3) Trade deficit : Foreign nations continue to buy our bonds, because their chief economists may be under the misguided notion, that it is better to finance our debt than to lose us as their primary market.

What are the signs to look for? (based on previous bubbles)

1) Old homes are on the market longer
2) Home builders offer free upgrades
3) Home builders quietly offer discounts to select buyers
4) Home builders hold "closeout events"
5) Quality of earnings (profits) decline
6) Revenues decline
7) Prices are in a downward spiral until they reach 40-50% below their current levels
8) Foreclosure rate rises
9) Number of personal bankruptcies rise
10) There is a pressure on the prices of homes at the high end
11) There is a pressure on the pricces of homes at the low end
12) Number of new home permits issued, begins to decrease.
13) Revenues at home improvement stores, begin to trend downwards on an year over year basis
14) Decline in employment in the construction industry
15) Decline in number of homes sold, will precede the drop in prices of the homes in that area.
16) Reduced consumer spending. You can get this data, from earnings reports from the various retailers. Thanksgiving and Christmas sales are a good indicator, of how the year was, to the consumer and the society.
17) Significant increase in use of interest only ARMs and other risky credit schemes, that could land the borrower in trouble, should interest rates rise significantly
18) Consumers find it increasingly difficult to tap into their home equity lines of credit, for other purchases.
19) Mortgage insurance companies tend to increase premiums on PMI for borrowers with multiple homes or those borrowers whose underlying motive may be to flip the property for a quick profit.


At 4:06 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good collection, why are there no posts here?

At 4:55 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great blog!!! This bubble is gonna burst and alot of people are gonna feel it!

At 4:32 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You put together a great list of indicators that the bubble is ready to/beginning to burst. For those of us looking to buy a home within the next 2-3 years, are there any particular indicators that you would look for to determine if prices have finished falling?

At 1:21 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

When prices have fallen to their lowest, all you will hear is that the prices can go even lower and that owning is a no-win proposition. You may hear this, if say the prices were to fall by a huge number, say 50%.

At 1:23 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why have you stoped posting? This blog is interesting... don't let it die.

At 8:46 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

found a good site:

At 10:00 PM, Blogger Sir GreenSPan Con-UN-Drum said...

The only valid answer to Greenspan Conundrum: The Activating Message for X-it & Security.

At 10:06 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I often grapple with the possibility of a housing bubble. There is a sense of urgency to buy something before you miss out on all of the potential gains, which exacerbates the bubble.

The risk involved with purchasing seems to outweigh the reward at this point. One thing to consider when deciding whether or not to jump in:

Creative financing is getting out of hand. It seems that the solution to the disproportionate gains in home prices is to keep coming up with financing terms that give you less ownership and more risk. Low rates have helped the boom, but excessive ARM use, interest only loans, and now negative amortization has allowed people to buy what they cannot really afford. If this continues, they will have pay you to take out a mortgage so they can get you hooked in for future payments that you cannot afford, and people will fall for it. Additionally, people are now gambling with the banks money rather than their own. If there is a drop in prices of even 10-15 percent, then people will have no hopes of paying the money back, they will be trapped in their homes, and be SOL once the rates start to adjust upward. Not my idea of the American dream.

This creativity is effectively buying time and facilitating the bubble. Once we run out of financing options, people will have to start paying for what they have. Eventually, it will be time to pay the piper.

I often see people write these blogs out of fear and anger because they missed the boat. I have made my 100k on a home I sold two years ago. I also own a small condo that I keep as a hedge if the home prices continue to climb, then I will still make money, but if thy plummet, then I will lose on the condo, but actually be able to afford a real house. I cant lose either way! Good luck to those who have a dog in the fight.

At 10:56 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

(Creative financing is getting out of hand.)
It is. With interest only loans, 120% loans, seller financed loans, the race is on to suck you into the payment network.

(Eventually, it will be time to pay the piper.)
When the time comes, the costs will be borne by you and me, the tax payers. The whitehouse will bail out their friends (just like they did with the airlines) and those billions will come out of your taxes.

(I often see people write these blogs out of fear and anger because they missed the boat.)
Fear, anger, denial, whatever it may be, keep posting!

At 6:32 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I just calculated the cost of the house I am renting in Arlington, VA versus what it would cost to buy. The Tax value is $540k, and a conservative sale estimate would be around $600k (most are going for around 100k over tax value after being bid up). I am paying $1475.00 per month to rent it. A mortgage on $600k assuming a 30 year fixed rate of 6% with 100% financed would break down as follows:

Mortgage Amount $600,000
Monthly Payment $3597
Monthly Tax $400 Approx
Total $3997

30% tax back from Interest $1079
write off

Total real payment $2918

By the time I would pay repairs and maintenance, it would end up costing me about $3200 per month That is $1725 per month or $20,700 per year saved by renting with no risk (only about a 4% gain per year, but even the optimists predict a flattening out from this point going forward.) There was money to be made in the housing market, but this is the smartest investment at this point. All of the above figures are conservative estimates, they do not account for 2nd trust with a higher rate, and do not account for gains that could be made on the saved amount. Enjoy these numbers!!

At 11:00 PM, Blogger DataC said...

(Total real payment $2918)

Factor in insurance, upgrades, community fees, additional commute if any, property taxes and you can end paying a lot more than you bargained for.

At 12:39 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This is a great article. I personally can't wait for the housing bubble to burst.That is how the rich get richer. By waiting for home prices to fall the rich buy much cheaper and profit by waiting and selling a little higher. The competing with the Jones' is how people get in trouble!!

At 11:10 PM, Blogger DataC said...

(This is a great article.)

(I personally can't wait for the housing bubble to burst.)
Don't count on it bursting, when you expect it to burst.

(The competing with the Jones' is how people get in trouble!!)
Well said. Low savings rate, no spending restraints, lack of income growth, poor economy, property flippers, zero down loans... All the factors are lining up by the day.

At 10:38 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I live in Southern California's Orange County. It has been nuts out here for the last 3+ years. I purchased a townhome at the last bottom (1995). I have held off trading up in this frenzied market. I still have vivid memories of friends loosing thier $40K-$50K down payments (remember when people made down payments?)in the late 80's early 90's - the peak of the last bubble. I hope the end is near for this cycle because I am getting tired of being the odd-man-out in real estate conversations. I try to tell them that EVERYTHING returns to trend. When average folks can get 25% returns on an asset class, the truth is they are simply lucky! Southern California real estate goes in cycles. Right now its like the Gold Rush. Every one out here has a story of how much money they have "made" on thier house. I know many who have purchaed "investment properties" which rent for less than the interest only payment they used to finance the dam thing. I am not bitter because I am in "the game" too but I have a 15 year loan and am loading up on cash. I plan to buy a nice house at a 25% discount in the coming year! Higer interest rate but at a much lower price & tax basis.

At 12:02 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

(I live in Southern California's Orange County. It has been nuts out here for the last 3+ years.)
San Diego, Los Angeles, SF Bay Area and Seattle on the west coast are grossly overvalued and have moved beyond past technical trend lines.

(I still have vivid memories of friends loosing thier $40K-$50K down payments (remember when people made down payments?))
It's worse this time and will even hit the financial system even harder. With zero-downs and stated-income loans, many of these people will find it convenient to just walk away. Ultimately the financial institutions and the ordinary tax payer will have to pay for this.

(I try to tell them that EVERYTHING returns to trend.)
Masses have a short memory. The last crash in Los Angeles was over 20 years ago and prices crashed 48%. However, that implies many of the current buyers today were too young to relate to it.

At 6:51 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If the "bubble bursts", or "the air slowly comes out", then do you think that the rental market will be affected?

Currently it lags way behind the housing market. Will rents go up, down, or remain unchanged? I expect them to trend up, but I am interested to hear your opinions!

At 11:39 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

(If the "bubble bursts", or "the air slowly comes out", then do you think that the rental market will be affected?)

Currently there is an exodus of people from rentals to mortgaged houses. If this spree slows down, the pressure on the rental market will be reduced and the rents may no longer continue with the downward spiral and may begin to stabilize.

Some of the biggest investors are still not very optimistic about the rental market. Sam Zell agreed to sell off some of his San Francisco properties as per a Wall Street Journal report a couple of days ago.

At 8:10 PM, Blogger Unknown said...

Housing Bubble? The Great Crash of 2006!
Real estate appraiser & mortgage fraud is rampant. It's completely nuts how people have turned their houses into ATM machines for crap they cannot afford to impress people they don't even like. The ultimate housing bubble site for useful information is:

At 5:24 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I work in land acquisition for a large residential builder. I have started a blog chronicling how the bubble market has deeply infected public homebuilders and how skyrocketing home prices have driven land in California to increase 2-3x.
Check it out at:

At 9:42 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The real estate market is constantly reaching new highs. It seems new stories appear weekly attesting to the rising housing prices, marking 10, 20, and 25 percent jumps from the previous year. They are all saying, “Get in now, the market is only going to go higher!” Claiming that when interest rates rise, “the market will merely cool off and maybe slow down the appreciation of your home. Worst case scenario is that housing prices will just plateau.”

The big question is, can the real estate bubble keep expanding? A look at recent history shows more than one so-called bubble bursting. Enron, Tech stocks, junk bond scandals, and the Federal Savings and Loan fiascos are a few of the recent nose-dives that have occurred suddenly. The state and local governments are going from surplus, to bust overnight. Will these terrible things happen to the housing market as well? What might provoke an enormous crash subsequent to a large booming collapse of the new high home values that we are seeing in the housing market?

Looking at the recent busts that have appeared in the news, they all have had one thing in common: deception and misinformation. These aspects have contributed to the overnight downfall of the individual market sector. If the ever-expanding real estate market and their values accurately represented the market forces, there would be nothing to worry about and homes would continue to appreciate. However, if the real estate market is actually based in deception and misinformation, a lot of people in Southern California will be hurt financially. The downfall of the 80’s will soon reoccur if the market is feeding deception or misinformation to the public. Has anyone checked the validity of the elevated housing market or questioned its common economic principals?

We have all heard over and over in the news that there is a shortage of houses for sale in Southern California. We have all heard of the bidding wars, 40 to 50 bids occurring within a few short days of a house being placed on the market. How about that house that sold the same day it was placed on the market? Has any one stopped to ask, “Is there really a shortage?” If there is a shortage, what is causing it? People need to examine these situations, question the validity of their arguments, and step back from the frenzied market. If we were to take a good look at the housing market would we find deception or outright misinformation? What can be done to help correct the deception and misinformation if there is any trickery going on? Lets look at the evidence and see what it really means.

As we hear of this great housing shortage, we also hear that homes sold are reaching all time records. In fact, there are articles reporting skyrocketing home prices, backed by articles bragging of new records in home sales. Record home sales? How can there be record home sales if there are no homes for sale? It simply does not make sense that there are record sales of homes stemming from a lack of inventory. You cannot sell what you do not have. The realty business is tricking the public by fixing attention on an imaginary “housing shortage,” while sweeping the truth of their record sales under the carpet. This contradiction should at the very least raise your eyebrow.

I hate to be the first to yell, “the emperor has no clothes,” but in all actuality, the emperor is in fact naked. The recent highs in the real estate market are based on a deception that has been spread by the realtors, which represent sellers and buyers, regarding the housing shortage.

Let us take a look at the supply of houses on the market and see if there is indeed a scarcity of homes to purchase. As a buyer, the first step that you would usually take is to get some type of pre-qualification so that you will know how much you can afford to spend on a mortgage and how much money you can invest in a home. Once you set your monetary limitations, the big search is on and the help of a realtor is used. A realtor can help buyers find a home to purchase. To find out what homes are available or “on the market,” the realtor uses the MLS (Multiple Listing Service) system.

The MLS lists the availability of homes for purchase, lease, and rent, in some cases. Here is where the misrepresentation of the market begins. Real estate brokers maintain the MLS system and different agents are assigned to utilize it via in-house MLS portals. Realtors misinform clients about homes available to be purchased. If the MLS was not totally inclusive and was to showcase only select parts of the market, would that deceptive? Remember, a lie is not only intentionally providing incorrect information, but also a purposeful lack of accurate information. The deception is that the MLS is not all-inclusive, and, in fact, includes only a partial list of what is offered for sale. The reason this occurs is simple. If the listing agent sells to another agent within the same broker, the broker gets a “double dip” their commission from both agents, one for listing the home, and the other with the homebuyer. So when your agent goes to the office, looks up properties for sale, and shows you what their broker has listed, they are most likely hiding the availability of certain marketable real estate i.e. “what other brokers have listed.”

Multiple brokers are showing only a small portion of the available market for sale thus giving the impression of no available inventory. Now this identical circumstance is occurring with several listing brokers is an area and each broker is, in fact, hiding or controlling their piece of the market. That is right. There are several large brokers and they are each only shown what is available through their MLS, thus not giving the buyers a true representation of what is truly available to be purchased. Also, since they are only showing a small percent of the market, they have, in fact, created a shortage by only allowing the buyers to see what they have control over. This is one of the reasons that there are record sales. At the same time you are shown the MLS there are only a few listings that you are told about, and you are told that the market has no inventory and there are no houses for sale. In reality, you have not seen what is truly for sale, thus overbidding occurs driving up housing prices due to distorted information which implies a housing shortage.

The first time that I became suspicious is when I went to view a condominium. In the lobby I noticed several lockboxes containing keys to the condos. I asked to see the other condos that were for sale and was told that someone else listed them. Later, when my wife and I were out driving, we passed a house with a different realtor sign outside and called the agent we were working with to ask them about it. Turns out they could not find the listing for the house. I then called the number on the sign and was given a completely different set of addresses to check out.

At this point, the trickery realtors pulled with customers was revealed to me, and I realized that the so-called shortage was just a big ruse. In short, the real estate market resembles a big shell game. Each shell that is controlled by some different MLS, reveals another hidden portion of the market. These hidden portions lead buyers to believe that there is a housing shortage. The big real estate brokers are not the only ones that hide parts of the market from prospective buyers. There are other culprits that are contributing to this sham. A few agents that are involved in this have created their own shell to hide their little parts of the market.

The first group, composed of independent realtors, brags about this in plain sight. What do I mean by this, you ask? Many times we are standing too close to all the trees to see the forest, or we have been conditioned to perceive things in a certain manner. Standing at a different angle and looking at the house situation reveals a different perspective. How can independent realtors brag about a shortage in the market? How many large-lettered advertisements have you seen in the local newspaper drawing attention to “exclusive listings?” Here is a new, but accurate, translation of “exclusives listings.” The market is perceived to be in such short supply that only a few listings are available. If you think you are special, you obtain the pleasure of buying. You are not supposed to think about other realtors doing this or about what else is being hidden from you since you get these special listings. You will then pay a greatly over-inflated price, and be thankful for it. You will be thinking that you were the one that pulled the wool over their eyes in getting the “exclusive listings.”

How many times have you heard a recent buyer refer their realtor claiming that they just helped them get a good deal? It is sad to say, but I would propose that the market has played on the population’s selfish tendencies. If you happen to be one of the many buyers that purchased a home in the last five or six years, you probably feel all right. However, once the buying market dries up and the dam of sellers can no longer be held back, prices are going to self-correct and your mortgage just might end up upside-down just as it was in mid and late 80’s. Let us take a look at the last way that realtors are shorting the market.

Within the last few years, there has been a phenomenon of flip houses. A flip house is where contractors, or in some cases a self-employed handyman, buy a run-down house and turn it out to the market in a matter of months after a quick renovation. Now don’t get me wrong here, I am grateful that lot of homes in disrepair have been renovated, and thereby turning around some questionable neighborhoods. However, why were these homes not placed on the market? The reason is simple, just about every realtor has a list of these investors that pay a finder fee to get first dibs on these “fixer upper” homes, also realtors were buying these homes for themselves without placing them on the market. The unfortunate young couples that are waiting to buy have lost out on the opportunity to buy and fix up their own home, and thus, ruining the classic American Dream. These are the people that have lost hope in southern California and have moved to other states or further into desert locations, such as Phoenix and Las Vegas. Do we really need to be reminded that there is a mass exodus of the middle-class tax base leaving California?

The last group of homes that are left unlisted is made up of new housing developments. There are still new tract homes being built in the Long Beach and Signal Hill area. Hundreds, if not thousands, of new homes have been built in the last six years or so. But not once have I seen this new inventory listed on any MLS. I was first alerted to this and did not even realize that there were still new homes to buy until someone already wanted to cash out a home they purchased only a few months ago. These people did not even move in to the new tract home, and they were listing the price higher than the development was selling them for. To my disbelief they were able to sell the home even with the one right next to it still for sale by the tract. Yet to a buyer, it seemed that this was the only available home for sale in the new tract. If there were only an inclusive MLS, that buyer would have been alerted to this. Once again, the truth was hidden under the layers in the shell.

This is how, and why, the prices have jumped so high in the southern Californian and other metropolitan areas. At first glance, some will state that I am some type of socialist. I can assure you that I am a very strong advocate for capitalism. I am all for FAIR competition. What I do not like are scams that rip off the public when, if left alone, the market can self-correct. As I started this paper, I mentioned several scams and failed deals that caused a lot of harm to a lot of people. They all had one thing in common: the misleading and, in some cases, outright lies to the public.

I am not sure if there is a corporate-level scam in the real-estate industry, but I do believe that very poor business practices are being put in place that will soon hurt the industry. Anyone that purchased property during the beginning of the so-called housing bubble, starting in the late 1990s, will also be negatively affected.

I believe that I have made my case regarding the shortage in the market. Anyone who has experienced a home search, or even chatted around the water cooler, can relate to the several simple examples I have provided. Past experiences reveal that the truth is always simple, and that when you hear underhanded statements or promises, it most likely means you are not hearing the truth. I would like to share what has really occurred to the real estate market, what damage it has caused, and how far reaching I believe this will be once market forces take effect and self-correct the situation.

The first and most personal change will be falling home prices. Some say that the bubble will burst and simply level off, but I disagree. It will be more like a downward spiral, slowly, and consistently sinking. The idea of interest-only loans is a popular trend. Oh how painful it must be to know that financially, you are on a never-ending rat wheel. Your only hope is to sell at your cost. It is understandable to do this for a couple of years, hoping to walk away with thousands in your pocket. What will most likely occur will be the realization of pending doom. It will creep over the seller’s heads and settle as they realize they will not be able to move without a major loss. The loss might be a devastating divorce, resulting from financial stress. It could be a career loss, or poor relocation. I don’t wish these situations on anyone, and am very empathetic towards those to whom it becomes a reality, but it is bound to happen to some getting involved in interest-only loans.

Will the correction that needs to take place have an effect on inflation? Most of the loans in the last ten years have been overrated, leveraged out or upside-down with the loss of imaginary equity. Will this spin out of control and lead to another Savings and Loan crisis? If this plays out as far as I believe it could, it will take ten to fifteen years and the devaluation of our money to bring back the balance of the true market forces, along with the economic infrastructure that maintains the local economy in the southern Californian area. This spin could have an impact on the economic heath of the nation. If the market were in fact strong, you would think that a busted bubble would bring down the national economy. Even knowing this, the effects of this falsely created market are far more devastating and far-reaching than most realize. Both personal and social damages will occur.

One of the great things about southern California is the racial and social diversity. Earlier I explained the big shell game hiding the market. I have a strong suspicion that this has also occurred with the segregation of neighborhoods, and parts of certain cities. Early in my housing hunt, before I came to realize the true state of the housing market, my wife and I were looking into what would be considered a Latino and Asian neighborhood. We were interested in the housing prices and the older Craftsmen style homes. Over the phone with our realtor, we were told outright that this was a Latino neighborhood and none of the realtors that we were working with would ever have a listing of it. It is no wonder that there are neighborhoods that are predominated by one race. What happens is, one family moves in and gives a reference to others of the same race. Before you know it, the only ones listing that neighborhood happen to be that same race. If there was a true housing shortage, and if the market was fair and accessible to everyone, the interaction of neighborhoods would happen naturally. What a waste, after such a great and long economic upswing, to still see such secluded neighborhoods that did not make the turnaround. These area are still an affliction to the LA basin and should have been restored to their glory days of years past. Buyers who would have jumped at the chance to buy a fixer-upper would have rejuvenated these places and brought pride back to the neighborhood. Instead, people just move further out to Riverside and the desert. The social gridlock creates horrible congestion on the freeways. The quality of California life has given way to long commutes and smog.

With these longer commutes there is an increase of gas consumption. Is the current fuel crisis related? Due to false information, buyers buy houses at a great distance from their workplace, forcing them to commute. It would appear that there is a direct cause and effect. These longer commutes create an environmental impact. The manipulated market shortage causes many other bad side-effects as well. If the manipulation of the market is intentional, you will reap what you sow ten-fold. Only you can decide if that is a curse or a blessing.

Being the strong capitalist that I am, the solution to the bad side effects of the crumbling morals of the market is simple, to have full disclosure on the market with a public access MLS. The correction will happen the best way possible: naturally. A home is usually the biggest monetary purchase of one’s life. Shouldn’t the standards of the market accommodate this with honesty and care? A car dealer cannot do certain advertising without having the car available at the time of the ad, the price of the car, and the VIN number. The same minimal standards should at least apply to the housing market as well. The listing date, the asking price, and the correct address, along with a few other details should be provided to a buyer without question. A county record or a link to the seller with more details of the property should be made available. With buyers more educated than ever before, the market should be expectant to keep up with informed and motivated buyers. If the car market can keep abreast of their buyers, the housing market should as well. Such a big purchase should not be riddled with uncertainty and doubt.

The only opposition to this would be would be a homeowner that knows what has occurred and realizes what is going to happen to their home values once the curtain of the Wizard of Oz has been removed. Of course the realtors and the industry itself would be opposed to my ideas for obvious, self-serving reasons. In fact, any rebuttal to this simple progressive idea would reveal the relevance of the facts.

Who could be trusted to administrate a database assessed by both realtors and public alike? Every county has a “County Assessor” office that already assesses taxes and keeps track of sales and property transfers. A selling realtor would simply fill out an on-line form with hopefully more than less information, and pay a small fee to self-support this now mandatory service. Mandatory processes of filing with the “County Assessor” shows some responsibility, but could cause a few slight objections.

How can such a system be enforced? A penalty amounting to half the assessed value of the property would easily enforce it. What this would do is create one more step after a title search: a value assessment of taxes. This would be a self-imposed step by a lender and mortgage broker. After the big collapse and devaluation of properties values, they will be screaming and demanding for this simple reform. This market is built with smoke and mirrors and that has created gargantuan false values.

The group that will most vocally oppose this idea will be the realtors themselves. The reason for this is that it will remove their commissions that they are used to receiving. By hiding different aspects of the market and creating false values, they make money. Ironically, these same people readily label me as a socialist or communist. In reality, a simple progression of the market will occur. Buying and selling real estate will become a streamlined process, exhibiting an ideal portrait of capitalism.

An old saying advises people not to complain about a problem, but to define it and provide a solution instead. This, being very well-stated, proves that there can be a simple solution. It may be painful to some, but it is a process that must happen. This needed progress will be demanded from the industry by buyers and lenders alike. High commissions at the expense of the public and the quality of life in the southern California area must end. Falsely over-inflated property values cannot last forever, once the truth of how many have been misled by the creation of a shortage in the market you will hear the loud and painful busting of the real-estate bubble busting.

At 11:02 AM, Blogger Peter Coy, BusinessWeek said...

We at BusinessWeek have been making a lot of these same points.

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At 11:04 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Because of my work I audit housing projects and mortgage lending around the nation. Perhaps the more compelling arguments about a housing bubble is that housing is no longer considered shelter, but rather an investment. I find there are irrational real estate investors everywhere. Examples: In Austin and San Antonio, Texas small investors, people who own one house in California, are selling their home and renting and taking the proceeds of their sale and buying three or four homes in the "undervalued" Texas market. These are primarily newly built houses. These investors are driving prices up and creating a false demand. In Minneapolis condo prices are inflating like zepplins for the same reson. Investors are buying new condos by the hundreds before they are built so they can flip them for increased prices after they are completed. The market is vastly overbuilt with thousands more being approved for construction. I give these two examples to point out that the housing bubble is not just a west or east coast phenomenon. Most major markets are in a bubble. I believe it will busrt sometime this winter or spring and take the rest of the economy with it into a recession. I recently turned my portfolio into cash. Where I believe the market will likely go up in the short term, I don't want to say I told you so and not have pulled my own assets out in time.

At 10:54 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't think there will be a sharp decline in prices, more of a soft landing or a smaller drop. Look at the real estate situation in Australia or the UK, where prices have been dropping for a while now. Their cycle is a couple of years ahead of the US when it comes to the price raise - and the price drop.

At 12:27 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The bubble is finally deflating

December's median home price for Seattle was $393K. It was $390K in January.

Isn't it curious how the major newspapers are dragging their feet on this story now that it's not so rosy anymore?

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Is Seattle in a real estate bubble?
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Subprime lending, also called B-paper, near-prime, or second chance lending, is the practice of making loans to borrowers who do not qualify for the best market interest rates because of their deficient credit history. The phrase also refers to paper taken on property that cannot be sold on the primary market, including loans on certain types of investment properties and certain types of self-employed individuals. sportsbook Subprime lending is risky for both lenders and borrowers due to the combination of high interest rates, poor credit history, and adverse financial situations usually associated with subprime applicants. A subprime loan is offered at a rate higher than A-paper loans due to the increased risk.

At 9:44 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

We are experiencing the worst financial crisis since the 1930:s, according to the IMF. Prices have continud to rise to a level which is not sustainable, and on top of that, US banks have lended out money to people who don't have the capacity of paying back. The subprime crisis is severe and both banks and well as Fed have done wrong.

The crisis in the US effects the whole world, not at least since banks have purchased financial instruments containing bad credits.

But the different regions in the world will manage differently. In emerging markets - for example South America - will probably be less effected. I think it's important to realize that properties in many parts of the world is still increasing heavily in value.

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